The wartime CEO mindset: making fast decisions with incomplete information
In stable conditions you can afford to deliberate. In volatile conditions, slow decisions cost more than wrong ones.
Ben Horowitz coined the distinction between peacetime and wartime CEOs. In peacetime, the market is growing, margins are comfortable and the biggest risk is moving too fast. In wartime, margins are compressed, competition intensifies and the biggest risk is moving too slowly. Most Australian SME owners are operating in wartime conditions right now.
Rising costs, uncertain demand and competitive pressure require a different decision-making approach than the one that got you here. This post lays out how to make faster, better calls when you do not have all the answers.
Why deliberation becomes a liability
In stable conditions, the cost of thinking things over is low. Taking an extra week to evaluate a decision when nothing urgent is changing is smart. But when conditions shift weekly (input costs rise, a competitor drops prices, a key customer signals they are reviewing alternatives), every week of delay has a measurable cost.
- A pricing decision delayed by 30 days costs you a month of margin erosion you could have avoided.
- A technology investment postponed until "the timing is right" costs you months of efficiency gains.
- A market pivot deferred until "the picture is clearer" costs you first-mover advantage.
Jeff Bezos describes decisions as one-way doors (irreversible) and two-way doors (reversible). Most business decisions are two-way doors. You can try something, measure the result and change course if it does not work. The wartime CEO treats two-way decisions as low-risk experiments, not strategic commitments.
The 70% rule
Colin Powell used the 40-70 rule: make a decision when you have between 40% and 70% of the information you want. Below 40%, you are guessing. Above 70%, you are too slow.
The sweet spot is acting with enough information to form a reasonable hypothesis, but not so much that the opportunity has passed.
For an SME owner, this means being comfortable making calls with incomplete data. You will not know exactly how customers respond to a price increase. You will not know precisely how much time an automation saves. What you do know is the cost of inaction. And in wartime, inaction has the highest cost of all.
A four-step decision framework
Fast decisions are not reckless decisions. They are structured decisions made with clear criteria and predetermined thresholds:
- Define the decision clearly. "Should we raise prices?" is too vague. "Should we raise prices by 5% on our standard service tier effective 1 April?" is actionable. Clear framing accelerates everything that follows.
- Identify the key variable. What is the single most important unknown? For a pricing decision, it is usually customer retention. Estimate a range and calculate the breakeven.
- Calculate the cost of waiting. If you delay by 30 days, what is the financial impact? For a pricing increase, it is 30 days of revenue at the current (lower) price.
- Set a reversal trigger. Before you execute, define the conditions under which you would reverse. "If we lose more than 8% of customers within 60 days, we roll back the increase." This makes the decision explicitly two-way.
The information infrastructure
Fast decisions require fast information. If it takes your team three days to pull together a cash flow report or a week to calculate the margin impact of a cost increase, you cannot make decisions at the speed the environment demands.
Invest in real-time visibility into three things:
- Cash position and cash flow forecast for the next 90 days (see our guide on managing runway when revenue is unpredictable)
- Customer health metrics: engagement, payment behaviour, support patterns
- Unit economics by product, service and customer segment
Most SMEs have this data buried across multiple systems. Consolidating it into a single dashboard that updates daily (not monthly) is the foundation for wartime decision-making. This is exactly what the Supply Chain Control Tower provides for operations-heavy businesses.
Managing your team through uncertainty
Your team is watching how you respond to pressure. If you project anxiety and indecision, they mirror it. If you project calm, decisive action, they follow.
This does not mean pretending everything is fine. It means being transparent about the situation while demonstrating a clear response: "Here is what is happening. Here is what we are doing about it. Here is what I need from you." Clarity reduces anxiety more effectively than reassurance.
Communicate decisions quickly and explain the reasoning. Your team does not need to agree with every call, but they need to understand the logic. Research from Harvard Business Review confirms that teams perform better under leaders who share context and rationale, even when the news is difficult.
The competitive advantage of speed
In stable markets, competitive advantage comes from being better. In volatile markets, it comes from being faster. The business that adjusts pricing first captures margin while competitors think it over. The business that automates operations first reduces costs while competitors study the problem. The business that spots at-risk customers first retains revenue while competitors find out about churn in their quarterly review.
Speed is not about rushing. It is about removing the friction between recognising a situation and acting on it.
Your next move
Identify the one decision you have been deferring that has the highest cost of delay. Run it through the four-step framework above. Set your reversal trigger and execute this week.
The Margin Leakage Calculator gives you a clear picture of where your business is financially exposed in about five minutes, so your first decision is backed by real numbers. If you are working through a period of significant change and want structured support, the Ops Accelerator program provides the framework and accountability to move through it effectively.
